Complex decisions are influenced by many factors. Such decisions are difficult to make, because you might not know how various options will turn out when implemented. Although many forces have an effect on your decision, only some of them are likely to have a real impact. The secret of success is to isolate the essential variables that affect the outcome of the decision. You can build scenarios to test different sets of assumptions, and determine the assumptions that are controlling factors versus the ones that are nonessential.
Planning a decision scenario improves your options. It helps you test a variety of assumptions to gauge their impact and to determine which one is the best. When planning decision scenarios, you should identify the certainties, uncertainties, and trends that might affect your decision. Use this information to build multiple decision scenarios that can indicate the possible consequences of the decisions you make today.
In this course you will learn to: create scenarios by using the extremes method and the driving forces method, and manage linked decisions and follow the guidelines for making linked decisions.